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Tesla published its Masterplan 3 this month with a foot note “Input and conversation are welcome.” So here we go.
As the world faces the challenges of climate change and energy security, the need for a transition to a sustainable energy economy has become increasingly urgent. Tesla’s Master Plan Part 3 proposes a comprehensive roadmap to achieving this goal, with a focus on end-use electrification and sustainable energy generation and storage. In this article, we will examine the assumptions, sources, and calculations underpinning Tesla’s proposed actions, including repowering the existing grid with renewables, switching to electric vehicles, and electrifying high temperature heat delivery and hydrogen production.
Tesla starts with a bold statement indicating there is a lot of waste energy in the economy.
Most of energy humans generate is wasted, but why?
The Second law of thermodynamics
The second law of thermodynamics, also known as the law of entropy, states that in any energy transfer or transformation, the total entropy (or disorder) of the system and its surroundings always increases. This means that when energy is converted from one form to another, some of it is always lost as waste heat. Therefore, energy efficiency is limited by the laws of physics, and no machine or process can be 100% efficient.
In practical terms, this means that most of the energy we use is wasted because energy is lost during each stage of the energy conversion process. For example, when coal is burned to produce electricity, only about 30–40% of the energy in the coal is converted to electricity, while the rest is lost as waste heat. Similarly, when gasoline is burned in a car engine, only about 25–30% of the energy in the gasoline is converted to motion, while the rest is lost as heat and noise.
Moreover, the infrastructure for energy production, distribution, and consumption also contributes to energy loss. For instance, there are transmission losses when electricity is transmitted over long distances, and there are losses due to leaks and inefficiencies in pipelines that transport oil and gas. In addition, many buildings and appliances are poorly insulated or designed, leading to significant energy losses in heating and cooling.
Overall, the second law of thermodynamics means that energy efficiency must be a top priority to reduce waste and improve the sustainability of our energy systems.
Renewables Renewables
Tesla claims the following:
“Globally, 65PWh/year of primary energy is supplied to the electricity sector, including 46PWh/year of fossil fuels; however only 26PWh/year of electricity is produced, due to inefficiencies transforming fossil fuels into electricity. If the grid were instead renewably powered, only 26PWh/year of sustainable generation would be required. ” — Source: Tesla
Experienced energy engineers would easily recognize what is wrong with this claim. The source to production efficiency for renewables can be very low, for solar energy this efficiency ranges from 15% to 20%, while for wind energy it typically ranges from 20% to 40%. Therefore, this means that renewable energy sources use more renewable source energy to be accurate and could use more than 46 PWh/year of renewable energy sources, however, the key point is that solar and wind are renewable, fossil fuel sources are not.
It is important to note that the abovementioned source to production efficiencies for solar and wind energy can vary depending on a number of factors, including the location, weather conditions, and the efficiency of the technology used.
In addition, when comparing apples to apples, renewable electricity generation still has transmission and distribution losses, unless the electricity is locally produced electricity at the point of consumption such as a solar roof, which is not the reality of how most of the world works today.
Transmission and distribution losses are a significant issue for all types of electricity generation, including renewable energy sources. These losses occur as electricity is transmitted over long distances from the point of generation to the point of consumption, and as it is distributed to individual homes and businesses.
The magnitude of transmission and distribution losses can vary depending on a number of factors, including the voltage of the transmission lines, the distance over which the electricity is transmitted, and the quality of the transmission and distribution infrastructure.
Studies have shown that transmission and distribution losses can account for a significant portion of overall electricity losses, ranging from 5–10% in developed countries to as high as 30% in some developing countries.
Too Many Assumptions
Tesla assumes EVs are 4x more efficient than fossil fuel vehicles, they don’t follow the rigorously established science metrics to describe this such as well-to-wheel efficiency.
In other words, the comparison does not consider the source of the electricity used to power the EV. If the electricity comes from a coal-fired power plant, for example, the overall carbon footprint of the EV could be higher than that of a gasoline-powered vehicle. To account for this, it is important to look at the “well-to-wheel” efficiency of EVs, which considers the total energy consumption and greenhouse gas emissions associated with the production, distribution, and use of the fuel source.
EVs are still significantly efficient compared to fossil fuel vehicles, but to be fair if EVs are located in a grid that is mainly fossil fuel powered they may not be. Also if EVs are located in a grid that relies entirely on solar and wind you ought to remember that the efficiency of electricity generation from these sources are 30% at best. So technically source to wheel is not 4x more efficient.
Heat Pumps
Tesla assumes that air-source heat pumps work at high efficiency everywhere, but in extreme cold climates they don’t.
In colder climates, for example, air-source heat pumps may not be as efficient as they are in milder climates. This is because the efficiency of air-source heat pumps decreases as the outside temperature drops, making them less effective at heating homes in colder climates. In some cases, additional heating systems may be needed to supplement the heat provided by the heat pump.
Tesla assumes green hydrogen will be produced from electrolysis and methane pyrolysis, electrolysis is highly inefficient and methane pyrolysis requires a fossil fuel industry and is highly inefficient currently, this is quite a conundrum.
Finally, there are other potential methods for producing green hydrogen, such as biomass gasification or solar-thermal water splitting, which may also become viable options in the future. It is important to consider all of these options and to carefully evaluate the technical, economic, and environmental factors associated with each method to determine the most effective and sustainable means of producing green hydrogen.
The Grid
Tesla only modelled transmission that is regional and ignored existing connections to Canadian grid and potent for future expansion. Also the potential for Distributed Energy Resources (DERs) may ease transmission congestions potential.
Costs
Tesla relied heavily on internal estimates for various costs for items they do not have experience with such as recycling and wind turbine factories. Among other many internal estimates which makes the confidence of this economic analysis a bit questionable.
In conclusion, Tesla’s Master Plan Part 3 presents a bold vision for achieving a fully electrified and sustainable economy through a comprehensive set of actions focused on repowering the grid with renewables, electrifying transportation and industry, and sustainably fueling planes and boats. While the proposed actions have the potential to significantly reduce greenhouse gas emissions and improve energy security, their implementation will require significant investment and overcoming technical, economic, and social challenges. Nonetheless, with the right policies, investments, and innovation, the transition to a sustainable energy economy is within reach.
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